Submitted by “Apple’s Unix – or who knows what it’ll be called by then – will overtake commercial Linux in rate of revenue growth by the end of 2007. By mid-2008, Apple’s sales of systems with factory-installed Apple Unix will exceed the total combined sales of x86 systems factory-shipped with commercial Linux. At the end of the decade, we’ll find that Apple Unix has overtaken commercial Linux as the second most popular general client and server computing platform behind Windows.”
From almost every metric I see, the Mac is already the 2nd most popular client OS behind the various flavors of Windows. So what’s the news here?
“At the end of the decade, we’ll find that Apple Unix has overtaken commercial Linux as the second most popular general client and server computing platform behind Windows.”
sales < user-base
sales < popularity
sales != quality
sales != stability
I understand that we’re trying to compare Apple to Commercial Linux distributors, but this is a futile effort. It’s been said many times before, you cannot compare sales of a product by a single company to software anyone can freely download for various platforms, it will only yield a very limited (as well as invalid) statistical view.
As long as you have free (as in beer) Linux distros there will be people willing to take the risk of not paying for a 1-800 tech-support package.
I understand that we’re trying to compare Apple to Commercial Linux distributors, but this is a futile effort.
I agree.
You can not compare an OS freely available only used by geeks and an OS shipped with Macs for the end users.
Facts: end user number > geek number
What is with that? I’m seeing more and more “ads” capturing this window event.
The ad for this page is:
http://www.appro.com/product/opteron_main2.asp
My Browser: KDE Konqueror 3.5.4.
Observation: It’s damn annoying.
I haven’t been to that page yet, but I feel your pain. Lately, it seems that the first 75% of the hits I get on Google contain the same content with just a different style sheet. The whole page is littered with those mouseovers. I thought about trying to write a firefox extension, but I keep hoping someone will beat me to it.
What mouse overs are you talking about? I’m not getting any ads on that URL on firefox here… granted, my work proxy might be blocking the ads.
I know exactly what he is talking about. The freakin’ AMD ad that when you mouseover it (which happens to happen when I click on a link and my cursor is always in the wrong place) that opens up and takes up 70% of the browser screen until you click or move off of it.
No problem here with opera 9.02 and certainly not with firefox and adblock.
Do they have some kind of magic ball to see the future? Trends and statistics don’t really mean nothing until they are proven. I could say that by mid 2008 Linux in the desktop will account for about 8% of total market, and Apple will only reach a mere 6%. I’m not talking about commercial Linux, because it really doesn’t matter if it’s commercial or not.
No one can see into the future (even though a lot claim too).
I can say this with almost 100% certainty, things will happen in the future, some trends will change, some will stay constant and so on…
I hope no one debates this article, whats the point…
…that Linux (free stuff I am talking) isn’t growing at a pretty steep rate that could keep it ahead of Mac OS X. But I guess the Apple Marketing machine is hard at work as the MS Marketing blitzkrieg once was/still is?
I own 5 Macs (4 of them in regular use by my wife, kids and myself) and I really like them. But I am also somewhat experienced with Linux and the BSDs…
They are becoming easier to install, easier to manage, have more and more useful software and are working hard at achieving consistent looks and feels across the OS and applications, AND you can build a machine to run it all on that suit your personal needs.
I am not sure if this is relevant, and probably it isn’t but I think Apple is too busy sending Cease-and-Desist letters to folks using “pod” in their name.
We all know Mac is popular, for how long, we don’t know. Metrics mean nothing because how do you count the install base of non-commercial GNU/Linux?
I don’t think Apple will take over Liinux’s server space, it is too over priced, IMHO, and you’re stuck with buying Apple upgrades. The last time we had to upgrade was when 2.6.12 kernel came out and it costed us a kernel recompile and a reboot.
The author does not give any statistical data whatsoever, so we have to take him at his word that yes, this is indeed the case. Secondly, he does not take into account that Apple can be hot now and in two years be as cold as ice. Apple will be relevant but not in the server space, this area belongs to Sun, IBM, HP and Linux. And if Longhorn servers can attract can attract any buyers, that is if it works, they might get a piece of the pie.
Until than, take this article with a grain of salt. Nothing to see here. . .
Edited 2006-09-26 23:47
The last time we had to upgrade was when 2.6.12 kernel came out and it costed us a kernel recompile and a reboot.
In which world do you live ?
You haven’t just to recompile the kernel, you also have to validate that all applications running on it will still work.
Anyway, if linux or windows is relevant for the server space, Mac OS X too.
“In which world do you live ?
You haven’t just to recompile the kernel, you also have to validate that all applications running on it will still work.
Anyway, if linux or windows is relevant for the server space, Mac OS X too.”
Obviously not on your world of jumping up and down pointing fingers without having all the facts, being blindly led by a “for profit organisation” fruit company into a false sense of security.
The person you are trying to shoot down probably has a server that sits in a secure network running a couple of basic services. They should really only upgrade what and when is nessesary. Unlike your blind bulk patches you apply from your provider. “Validate”? WHat the? Do you run all your applications after a patch to see if they are “validated”? How about Preview? Did you check that it is OK?
If OSX is relevant then so is BeOS. Oh wait, why did it die again? And why are there open source groups trying to revive it for free? Ha theres a thought, in 10 years there may well be OpenOSX projects to keep OSX dreams alive.
The argument is a little specious. Namely, it states that the number of Mac OS sales (including upgrades) will eventually exceed the number of commercial Linux server distributions pre-installed on hardware. That’s pretty specific. Only a fraction of hardware destined to run Linux will come with it preinstalled. There are many distributions, but few specifically classify themselves as “server” distributions, and many are not specifically commercial.
IDC reported that Linux became the number 2 desktop OS back in 2003. To date, Apple still hasn’t matched its growth in that segment and has hardly made any impact in the server market.
That’s not to say that there aren’t parts of the US and Canada where this might be true, but for most of the world, Linux is very obviously gaining at a much faster rate.
maybe by third quarter 2010, folks will stop making asinine predictions…
LOL.
“Apple’s Unix – or who knows what it’ll be called by then – will overtake commercial Linux in rate of revenue growth by the end of 2007. By mid-2008, Apple’s sales of systems with factory-installed Apple Unix will exceed the total combined sales of x86 systems factory-shipped with commercial Linux”
Yes, and at the current rate of growth, by 2012 everyone in the world will be an Elvis impersonator.
Trends are interesting, but there’s a real danger in extrapolating them without care.
Anyway, am I the only person who’s surprised that Mac OS doesn’t already outsell commercial Linux? I mean, it’s sold in retail channels to the general public, whereas in general the only Linux sales that are recorded are for servers and the occasional commercial desktop contract.
Or am I missing something?
Edited 2006-09-27 01:17
Actually the real article name is “Linux Is Heading Underground” and the summary goes “Where will Linux thrive? It’ll be the de facto choice for embedded solutions. I believe Big Software vendors such as IBM and Oracle will use Linux to give unwieldy enterprise solutions the George Jetson treatment: Push a button, you’ve got an enterprise database, configured, loaded with sample data and listening for connection.”
I think it was interesting enough as a start. Thom I caught you trying to stimulate our trolling gland!
Where exactly is the news? :o) But seriously, that site should be knowkn as anti-linux.insider, the quantity of FUD they spawn in the last years would kill the Microsoft get-the-fud campaign inventors …
rehdon
BTW Thom, you should add a “Do not recommend this article” option to the site interface.
rehdon
I totally agree. It would be a great feature and help editors improve OSAlert content.
The various web statistic sites that have been cited previously at osnews.com show that Mac OSX usage is ~4% while Linux is ~0.4%. That’s an order of magnitude greater usage for Mac over Linux.
Edit:
I may as well cite the web activity stats cites here:
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=2
Mac: 3.71%
Linux: 0.47%
http://www.onestat.com/html/aboutus_pressbox46-operating-systems-ma…
Mac: 2.47%
Linux: 0.36%
http://www.thecounter.com/stats/2006/August/os.php
Mac: 3% (rounded to nearest integer percentage)
Linux: 0% (rounded to nearest integer percentage)
http://www.webhits.de/webhits/browser.htm
Mac: 4.6%
Linux: 0.4%
That’s for client systems. Where Linux is really “trouncing” Mac OS X is in the server market. Apple has an advantage in that they’re trendy right now and all of their systems are sold with the OS already installed. The number of OEMs that are selling Linux desktops are very few and mostly fringe. The closest thing we have from a few OEMs is the no-OS option. I don’t know how many servers and computers I’ve setup that shipped with a flavor of Windows, but ended up running Linux or one of the BSDs.
This numbers shipped crap is really over blown and the webhits are hardly a good metric. Those are very dependent on the target audience of the websites being monitored. I heard on slashdot that about 75% of the hits are from Mozilla/Firefox. Going by hits alone, you would think that Mozilla/Firefox has 3/4 of the web browser market.
If Linux is roughly 0.5%, and Mac 4%, what’s the installed base? Gartner estimates 885 million.
http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?doc_cd=142540
So that implies Apple’s installed base is 35 million. That must be going on for 8 year’s shipments. Is that plausible, that just about every machine shipped for the last eight years is still in service? It seems a bit high, if you consider what the older machines specs would be.
Similarly, is it plausible that there are roughly 4 million installed linux machines in the world?
It is quite puzzling. At least the Apple numbers, we know what shipments were. But with Linux, we have no idea how many CDs were bought from the stores, how many downloads there were, and then how many of these resulted in installations. So the web data is almost impossible to verify.
I do find it a bit implausible that all the online activity, development, online sales is only happening for an installed base of 4 million, but that seems to be what the numbers are telling us.
… no, really… I can’t find an author anywhere on that page, browsing with Firefox 1.5.0.7.
The byline reads “Infoworld”.
So, we’re supposed to believe someone who isn’t even willing to put their name on the article (yet refers to themselves), uses no evidence, no statistics, just conjecture pulled out of… “somewhere”.
Is Dvorak moonlighting again?
Someone mod the article -5 already.
Really! OMG! There will be much wailing and nashing of teeth if and when this occurs. Whatever will linux do? Linux will have to file for bankruptcy and layoff a million people and use unfair practices to turn a profit…..OH WAIT – so what if it is true. Linux itself is not a company and does not depend on turning a profit or trouncing the competition. Linux is a success already simply bcause of it being in existance and nothing can change that.
Oh, I feel real sorry for those commercial linux companies who were making millions on it and now will fail because of apple….
factory shipped==popular….?????…..
Most people still don’t get it..
It really doesn’t matter if all companies backing linux right now break and vanish, it really doesn’t matter if MS-DOS gets more users than Linux.
Linux is free, open, and therefore very difficult to die in its actual state.
But, if Apple goes out of business, so does Mac OS.
Mac OS X is in more consumer desktops than linux by a factor of 10:1. Linux has a major share in the server market and embedded market, where apple barely exists, which brings its overall numbers much higher than OS X. Everyone knows this truth, and it will remain so. Each OS has its strengths, and you can use both if you want.
Having seen which newsite has published that article, I say that it is not a website recognized for its support of Linux. They have had some “news” about the SCO case where they go SCO all the way.
Now if some other newsite speak about that, ok, i’ll perhaps consider this seriously but not now.
Each has their own good and bad points. I fail to see why many of these comments spill from some folks fingers..?
I love Mac OS as an everyday OS. I don’t need anything that Linux or Windows offers, but that doesn’t mean they are not great in their own way.
Just because we love our respective OS’s doesn’t mean we should try to take down the others.
This article has been doing the rounds for quite a while and has already been very thoroughly debunked. It isn’t “news” at all.
to all those making empty comments on this thread, please read the article before assuming you know what it says.
It specifically points out that if you don’t read it carefully, dumb*sses like yourselves will make asinine comments as you have…
It was making a specific point, NOT a general commentary on the growth of Linux vs OSx.
Man now I know what my High School english teacher felt like in class discussions of reading that no one had done.
grow up. Do your homework.
Apple’s Unix – or who knows what it’ll be called by then – will overtake commercial Linux in rate of revenue growth by the end of 2007.
Note this is revenue, not necessarily licenses.
Apple gets, what, $130/license of OS X ($199 for family packs, but we’ll stick with $130).
Red Hat get $299 for a Enterprise WS (Standard Support).
Now, here’s the rub. That means that Apple needs to sell 2 licenses to catch up with a single license of Red Hat, in terms of revenue.
But this is Linux. Licenses are pretty much optional. It’s not difficult to outgrow, in terms of revenue, a free operating system.