“Perhaps it’s a sign of how desperate some sites are to get linked by the big aggregators, or perhaps it’s a sign of how disappointed people are with Windows Vista – or both – but the endless stories about Windows 7’s ‘official launch’ are silly and (more importantly) quite misleading.”
It’s obvious, people dont want another Vista and Windows 7, people are crying out for a good solid desktop users OS.
If Microsoft dont deliver this time, it’s not like people have much choice or Linux will run rampant over the desktop market because of it. Microsoft want more growth so people skipping version wont help that, I suspect the corporates skipping upgrading will hurt them though.
linux will not likely over take teh desktop if windows 7 fails. they will want to stick with XP. vista was change, linux is an even bigger change. the people know XP and they will fight for it, if they dont need to change they wont. its just the nature of teh beast
Yes, people will stick with XP (or even w2k) as long as they can, and for good reasons. The problem is that at some point they need new hardware, or software, or patches for security flaws. This will force an upgrade to something, and that something might very well be Linux. It may take several years before people reach that point. In the mean time Linux is getting better and better.
Naturally, Linux is a change, and like you say people don’t like change, but they like it even less if it cost them an arm and a leg. Linux can be downloaded and tinkered with for free, and some people may find that it suits their needs.
Linux have come a long way already, and is now almost as boring (to the nerd) as windows. Nerds can no longer use it to brag to their fellow nerds about how good they are with computers. “Look guys, I can use the mouse!”, or “It just works” doesn’t cut it for that group of people.
For the abandoned XP user on the other hand this is exactly what is needed. Combine that with some new cool mini laptop for $100 or so, and Linux may be very tempting even to the die hard XP user.
…And, like it or not, the vast majority of consumers will run to their local big-box retailer and buy something 1) off the shelf, and 2) familiar. What’s off the shelf and familiar is either a Microsoft OS or an Apple OS. The big box retailer is going to go with what sells at the lowest overhead to themselves. While GNU/Linux may be a low cost solution, the advertising and other overhead associated with getting it to sell negates that advantage.
Mr. Dough hit the nail on the head. Linux may have tiny inroads with the desktop PC market, but nothing significant. The biggest inroad for Linux is on things that are treated more like devices or appliances, like the Eee. This is a decent sized inroad, but the PC market sticks the the familiar.
That is one point that’s often missed: Vista’s most dangerous competitor is not Linux or OS X, it’s XP.
If that were the case, everyone would be on mac.
Normal people don’t really care what their operating system is.
The reason the not are on macs is the same as why they are not on Linux. If they switch, they will be stuck with a lot of files that they might be unable to open, because the app that created it might not have been ported to MacOS.
What OS people use have very little to do with what OS that is the best from technical or usability point of view.
That was valid 10-15 years ago.
The reason they are not on macs is because they begrudge every bit of effort they have ever put into learning computers, and having put time (or wasting, from their point of view) into learning windows, they do not want to start all over again.
I agree 100%.
Unfortunately, I think that it still holds true, just look at the situation for VBA in latest versions of MS-Office for MacOS and Microsoft OSes.
In fact it, sometimes is problematic enough to upgrade from one version to another within the same OS. This is why people stay on the platform they know to work for as long as possible. Saying – “Hey, boss I just upgraded our fully functional system to the greatest and latest, and now it doesn’t work anymore” is not a good career move.
Then there are more software than that from Microsoft to consider. Some niche software seldom gets ported from the platform where they orginate, regardless if that platform is Windows, MacOS or something else. If the software is developed for a platform with a large user base, the probability for finding a port is even less. They have all the users they need, and can prevent people from moving elsewhere by file format lock in.
Yes, that is another reason, a third reason is that they would need to replace some of their hardware and that costs money too. Not too mention the cost of mac versions of software that is licenced for the windows platform only.
So to get people to switch to something other than XP
it needs to be:
1) Inexpensive in terms of training
2) Inexpensive in terms of licensing of OS
3) Inexpensive in terms of application software licensing
3) Inexpensive in terms of conversion of existing data and in house applications
4) Inexpensive in terms of need for new hardware
And this is only the show stoppers that prevent people from upgrading. They also need some kind of incentive to actually change. I.e. the thing they change to must be better than what they already have. Even inexpensive things are expensive if you can’t see any return of investment.
In the case of MacOS, the incentive could be increased productivity and decreased managment costs. The question is would this be enough to outweigh the costs of an upgrade. In most cases probably not.
They would also still be in a strong vender lock in situation to get out of that trap, people need to use software that support international standards, and whenever you can chose from different standards go for the ones that is implemented by more than one software vender. That way your data will have a long life, and you will be at a good burgeoning position the next time you need to upgrade your system.
So, I think we will live with XP for a long time to come. Microsoft knows this, other software venders knows this, companies selling support and training knows this and they all adapt to this situation. I would not be at all surprised if Microsoft postponed the end of life of XP.
“If that were the case, everyone would be on mac. ”
Untrue… XP is free when you download a copy off of the torrents site. And face it, weather you like it or not, that’s true in many cases.. Also, you wont need to change architectures or buy a new machine just to run it.
“Normal people don’t really care what their operating system is.”
Untrue… I’m a normal person, got fed up of XP’s shiteness, got fed up of Linux’s shiteness, and switched to Mac (‘s impressive shiteness for you non mac lovers) …
I actually have Leopard running on my HP laptop, and I downloaded it for free off of a torrent site
That is beside the point though. You are right in that cost is another big factor. If someone can buy a machine for 500$ that will more then you need it to, then they will not look that much further. Apple is really not that competitive in the 500$ range.
Dude, if you are posting on a site called OSAlert, you are not the kind of person I am talking about.
The majority of home users want their computers to do do a few limited tasks, but do not really want to learn anything about them. Since they probably use windows at work, and most likely have friends who use windows, chances are that is what they are familiar with. When you are talking stuff like email, the web, downloading mp3s, and using word, it doesn’t matter too much what operating system you are using when it comes to capabilities, and if playing games is on that list, windows is the best choice anyways.
…that runs all the Windows software they used to run.
Linux will grow slowly, but it won’t “run rampant”. Don’t underestimate vendor lockin. Companies whose IT departments are run by “gee-whiz-look-at-the-glossy-flier” types will certainly stick with Windows. Most companies with even mildly competent IT departments will turn their nose at the required investment for re-training. (Yes, there are big, important differences between OpenOffice.org and Microsoft Office.) Home users often want what everyone else is using, and gamers, sad to say, won’t abandon Windows even if you paid them their weight in gold.
Well, maybe if you paid them their weight in gold, but only because they could then afford a computer whose specs would actually run Vista.
The problem with this theory is that Wine is at long last finally approaching version 1.0 release.
http://wiki.winehq.org/WineReleasePlan
All it will take is an enterprising company to put a good Linux desktop distribution with a large repository (Ubuntu, Mandriva or Fedora) together with a version of Wine 1.0+ and $100 of “unrequited” hardware … say Pentium 4 512MB Intel graphics class machine … “Vista capable” but actually not able to run Vista well (if you know what I mean) … there must be thousands upon thousands of such system unsold right now … and already you will have a Linux desktop that is a better Windows than Windows.
You will get a full-featured Linux 3D desktop with all the bling, native 3D graphics drivers (and wireless too if it uses Intel wireless chips), ample speed and inbuilt security, and you will be able to install & run all of your old legacy Windows applications, including games.
Just to be clear about my own comment, people are crying out for a solid users desktop for Windows 7 and not another Vista.
Sorry reading it back it does sound like I said nobody wants Windows 7.
Vista is just not that bad.
There are some bugs in it but it has been rock solid for me and the UI has been smooth as butter.
In other words S.O.P.(Standard Operating Procedure)
Even though I like Vista to some degree, the prospect of a near-from-scratch, Virtualized OS is very enticing, and made all the sweeter with MinWin.
Gonna be going to the 2k8 launch, the first thing i do when i get home is sticking 2k8 on my laptop
Uhm, I think you’re misreading what minwin is about.
Hey, don’t rain on his parade. This forum is filled with clueless fanboys who will jump onto any damn thing that seems to have a cool name. We have people here who love jumping around like kids with ADD chanting “minwin” and other code names. Let these children have their fun – soon enough they’ll become old, bitter and cynical just like me – and realise everything sucks.
Someone else has already pointed out you seem to be confused on exactly what MinWin actually does, so I’ll just point out the other flaw with your reasoning….
What makes you so sure MinWin will ship as a part of Windows Seven? Go back and look at all the missing features from Longhorn that somehow never made it into Vista. Look at this latest service pack, which has added none of them back to the operating system.
Sorry but when it comes to Microsoft I’ve learned to be very skeptical, I’ll believe it when I see it released as a part of their official offerings and not a moment before.
–bornagainpenguin
Microsoft never said MinWin will be part of Windows 7, MinWin is just a research project.
What Microsoft said is that Windows 7 will not have a major architectural change, the architecture will be the same of Vista. Vista already had a major Windows architectural change (kernel improvements, memory managment, new fair processes scheduling, I/O system, audio and tcp/ip stacks, graphics subsystem with user mode drivers, security, services hardening, etc).
Edited 2008-03-19 16:10 UTC
MinWin is part of server 2008, its not a research project
From 300 system we’ve build from March 2007 to March 2008 we have sold only 2 copies of vista, 290 XP Home and the rest XP Pro.
Another store is owned by my friend and he sold just one copy since Vista Release.
Almost All of Technicians agree about the reason #1 at least:
Speed.
Vista makes your computer 3-5 years old compaired to XP.
What is most interesting is that a few months before Vista’s RTMd, I’ve heard Jim Allchin of Microsoft saying that WIN ME was a disaster and that they’ll do their best not to repeat the same mistake with Vista. Not another windows millenium.
Oops, I think you did it again.
The difference is that WIN ME was crashing all the time and Vista is slow (and won’t let you run many programs you used to run)
The article stated: Sources at Microsoft tell me that the inside vibe is tense: Windows 7 is a do-or-die release, because the perception is that there’s a lot riding on it, including the redemption of Windows.
As an XP user, I found this statement very encouraging. Vista is the first version of Windows which, in my opinion, sacrificed the users’ interests for the sake of Microsoft’s, the movie industry’s, and the “content providers'” interests. I am hoping that the citation above means that Microsoft has learned its lesson and that they will need to put the users’ interests first, and other interests last.
Personally, I have no plans to change OS’s, and I have no compelling reason to want to do so, either. In my line of work – digital multitrack recording/composing – not one single studio or composer/musician known to me has or is planning to move to Vista. I expect XP to be fully supported by ALL hardware and software developers for many, many years to come. The only partial exception is DX10 games, but many of those can be hacked to run under XP, so that is no big deal either…
How quickly people forget! Does anyone remember Winamp 3.0? It was so crappy that despite liking the new skin most people simply stuck with the earlier 2.xx versions which ran better and faster (not to mention were more responsive) so the Winamp team decided to merge the two codebases (or so they said) and in a fit of marketing pique called the revamped release Winamp 5.
Does anyone remember that? Winamp 5 was definitely an improvement over v3.0 but really not much better than Winamp 2.xx which was still faster and better performance wise….but the development team didn’t want to keep doing bug fixes for the 2.xx series and Winamp 5 was Nullsoft’s “do or die” release….
How many people do you know still using Winamp these days? I do but that’s because I grew into Winamp when I first got into computing–most people I know have never even heard of Winamp these days or use something else for all their music playing needs. Somehow I get the feeling Windows seven will be the same as the way Winamp went down…
Some people will find it a slight improvement over the previous release, others will stick to the last release they found that worked well for them. The vast majority will be soon using something else….
–bornagainpenguin
I would use Winamp still, but unfortunately, it’s stuck in Windows land, and I’ve since moved on. Now, the best I can get that fits my preferences for a simple audio player is Audacious and, while nice, it’s certainly got a nice number of flaws and bugs. If Winamp were native to Linux, I would switch back in an instant.
They both have their flaws (and in Winamp’s case it’s the increasingly obvious corporate influence, including ads and annoying “value-added” crap, which can thankfully be avoided due to its modularity). It doesn’t run as good in Wine as it does natively in Windows, either. IMO, Winamp is *still* the best audio player. Gotta love the plugins, skins, visualizations, and snappiness.
I still use it on occasion under Wine to do things I wouldn’t be able to do otherwise (ie. convert classic gaming music to wave to be compressed into a lossy format of choice for car listening/etc., and to play formats like N64 USF files that I can’t play in Linux normally). But… overall, it still feels kind of flaky in Wine.
I think Microsoft will do two things if they release a new version of Windows anytime soon. 1) They will destroy consumer confidence in Microsoft and 2) they will completely fragment the OS desktop marketshare (as you will find people on XP, Vista, and 7.) Microsoft needs to focus on Vista and fix it before working on the next big thing.
yeees, linux will now WIN! EPIC WIN! MS will FAIL so UTTERLY and completely that NOONE that just buys a computer and uses whatever the heck is on it will want to use it and will go out of their way to download a LUNIX distro and install it and learn how to use it even if there probably won’t be much of a learning curve and their hardware will probably work except for video!!
I SMELL the YEAR OF THE LINUX in 2009! WOOHOO!
Edited 2008-03-19 22:53 UTC
I ask you draw your attention to this thread here:
http://www.osnews.com/thread?305670
Having looked at it, might I ask that whomever it was that decided to start modding everyone who responded in it down, what exactly that was in that thread which was improper or in violation of OSAlert.com rules? Or were those comments modded down by someone who thought they were offensive to their corporate masters in Redmond? Looking over what was posted that last one is the only thing I can see having any merit as an explanation.
–bornagainpenguin
PS: This new moderation style (where you can only moderate in threads you haven’t actually posted in) sucks. I’m beginning to wonder how many people created sock puppets to deal with it….maybe that’s where I’m going wrong? I’m trying to have intelligent discussions on computers, OSes, and the future of technology with a bunch of immature children more concerned with “gaming” the system?
Edited 2008-03-20 13:56 UTC